Who needs Krolicki? Republicans could run a loser against Sen. Harry Reid and still make it a race:
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/23-25. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Reid (D) 46
Porter (R) 40
Basically, Porter is a generic Republican. And if there were a stronger one (say Dean Heller or Joe Heck) the numbers might very well look even worse for Harry Reid. Why? Well, look at his approval numbers:
Approval/Disapproval ratings
Reid: 38/54
Porter: 40/39
Those numbers are just horrible. These are numbers that even some Republicans who lost their Senate seats on Nov. 5 didn't have.
But, wait, it get's worse:
If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote to reelect Harry Reid would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Reid?
Reelect: 32%
Consider: 23%
Replace: 41%
So, what does all of this mean?
Well, I still have a feeling that Harry Reid may retire. Sounds unlikely but then again I find it at least as unlikely that we'll see two Reids (Rory for Governor) on the ballot and see both of them win. With these numbers Harry would be a huge drag for his son.
Of course Markos has a simple solution:
It's time Reid seriously consider resigning his leadership post so he can focus full-time on winning reelection. The state's changing demographics and the thousands of newly registered voters (thanks to Obama) are likely Reid's salvation, but if he continues his half-assed leadership efforts, that won't do either him, nor the Democratic caucus any favors.
And I've got an inkling that Markos conducted this poll (the first on Reid's reelection) in the first place to figure out how to get rid of Harry Reid as Majority Leader. Incidentally, there is this little paragraph in the poll:
DEMOCRATIC SECTION ONLY (400 PRIMARY VOTERS)
QUESTION: If there was a primary challenge to Harry Reid in 2010 would you to reelectHarry Reid would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replaceReid?
REELECT CONSIDER REPLACE NOT SURE
ALL 44% 31% 19% 6%
MEN 46% 35% 15% 4%
WOMEN 42% 27% 23% 8%
A primary against Reid? A lot of progressives and members of the netroots would probably be all for it. The question is: would any Nevada Democrat dare to take on Reid?
The United States saw dramatic increases in voting from traditionally underrepresented groups, including minorities and young voters, according to a new analysis released this week by Project Vote. If borne out by systematic analysis of the voter rolls, this change in the electorate is evidence of the power of successful voter registration drives and an indication of the strong inclination of voters to participate in the process when candidates address their issues.
- your lawyer tells the media that the indictment plans began more than a month ago
Smells fishy? Sure does. You can draw your own conclusions but you don't have to. Anjeanette Damon already did it for you:
So why would Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki announce to the state yesterday that he is about to be the subject of a criminal indictment process that by law must remain secret? And why would Krolicki announce one week before the indictment announcement that he would be exploring a run against U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, the most powerful Democrat in the country (for another two months anyway) let alone the state?
First, very few political insiders believe Krolicki announced his possible Senate bid without knowing that he was about to become the subject of a grand jury hearing. Republican insiders began saying the day after the election that Krolicki would be announcing soon. In a press conference yesterday, Krolicki's lawyer said the indictment plans began more than a month ago. Asked directly, however, Krolicki denied yesterday that his Senate announcement was made to help his argument that he's the victim of a Democratic witch hunt.
So, what can we take away from this? It's likely that the Lt. Governor will actually be indicted, it's likely he'll try to run for reelection, it's now very unlikely that he'll actually challenge Harry Reid. Seems like Anjeanette is right and his interest in running for the Senate was nothing more but a way to blame Reid (and Democrats in general) for his indictment whether he denies this or not. And, yes, this is the guy who was the honorary chair of McCain's Nevada campaign because he didn't want the Silver State's already tainted Governor anywhere near his campaign.
As for who will now challenge Reid: I still doubt it'll be Dean Heller. I still believe he'd rather take on the much more vulnerable Jim Gibbons and run for Governor. And everyone else who might even be slightly viable - Reno Mayor Bob Cashell, North Las Vegas Mayor Michael Montandon - seems to be more interested in running for Governor as well. That leaves two recent losers: Rep. Jon Porter (who lost to Dina Titus) and State Sen. Joe Heck (who lost very narrowly to Shirley Breeden).
As for the reasons why Lt. Gov. might be indicted (we forgot to tell you above, didn't we?) the Las Vegas Sun and Inside Nevada Politics have more. Also check out the awesome Desert Beacon who has some great background.
On March 5th 2003 Asaf, a young high school boy was on his way back from school. A suicide murderer that exploded on Asaf's bus killed him and sixteen other innocent men, women and children.
Five years after his son's death, Yossi Zur is asking people all around the world to make Asaf's dream of travelling the world come true. You can help Asaf (also known as Blondi) travel around the world and maybe discover the Silver State.
All you need to do is to print this pic of Blondi, take a picture photo with Blondi's pic somewhere in Nevada (or wherever else you are) and send it to Yossi.
It's really easy. You can take Blondi to Lake Tahoe, the State Capitol in Carson City, the "Biggest Little City in the World" sign in Reno or the Strip in Vegas.
Click here for more info, Yossi's email address and Blondi's world tour photo album.
There's a new addition to the Nevada blogroll called Maven & Meddler which posts on a whole number of issues including but not limited to politics.
I also thought it was time to include a couple of national blogs that I have started reading a while ago and now visit on a very regular basis. They are Marc Ambinder and Andrew Sullivan who both blog at The Atlantic, and Ezra Klein who blogs at The American Prospect. Check them out and also take a closer look at the Nevada and national blogrolls. You'll find quite a few outstanding blogs.
"This victory alone is not the change we seek. It is only the chance for us to make that change." President-elect Barack Obama
Across the country, food banks are struggling to keep up with increased demand. And with the holidays approaching, Democrats Work is doing something about it. We need your help.
...and betraying Democrats and slamming Obama and oh so much more:
42 out of 55 Senate Democrats caved in today and let Joe Lieberman keep his chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee.
Of course this wouldn't have happened if the leaders weren't in favor of this. So, who's responsible?
Harry Reid. He's the Senate Majority Leader and as such he either doesn't have a problem with Lieberman or he was too weak to prevent it. Whichever way you slice it this is simply unexceptable and a failure on Reid's part.
Barack Obama. As President-elect he is now the leader of the party. If he didn't want Lieberman to keep his chairmanship than it wouldn't have happened. That two Senators very close to him, Dick Durbin and John Kerry, spoke out in favor of Lieberman is more than telling. If Lieberman will screw Obama during the next four years it's Obama's own fault.
42 members of the Democratic caucus. Yeah, Democrats in Washington are truly spineless. That 13 of them aren't is very little comfort.
Chatter is already starting on the blogs, especially Daily Kos, to primary Harry Reid in 2010. I'd be surprised if any Democrat in Nevada would be willing to do so but pissing off an entire group of Democrats when your approval rating in Nevada is low and Republicans will do anything to defeat you is just plain stupid. It'll come back to haunt Reid.
And if all this weren't enough, DNC chair Howard Dean is leaving his current job pissing off his base. Go figure.
When I read an article in today's Las Vegas Sun on Dina Titus arrival in Washington DC for freshman orientation, there was mention of which caucuses Dina Titus wanted to join. That's when I remembered the diary I wrote in the summer asking Shelley Berkley to join the newly established LGBT Equality Caucus as she wasn't one of the founding members. I checked back today and saw to my delight that Shelley Berkley has indeed joined the caucus in the meantime. I now sincerely hope that Dina Titus will do the same and that together they will work to achieve equal rights for the LGBT community.
There was quite a good turnout at the Join the Impact protests in Las Vegas and Reno on Saturday. The high point of the protests in Las Vegas was comedian Wanda Sykes publically coming out. Watch:
In Reno, County Commissioner Kitty Jung joined the protesters and spoke to the crowd. From all the reports I read I didn't see anything about any politicians joining the protests in Las Vegas.
With talk of President-elect Obama assembling his cabinet currently rampant, speculation about possible nominations for the US Supreme Court are not as pronounced - yet. Nonetheless, long before election night was over, people left and right were already putting together lists of potential nominees. And with good reason.
One justice, John Paul Stevens, 88, is certain to retire. The only reason he's still on the court was the prospect of being replaced by a Bush nominee and giving the conservatives a majority on the court. His retirement is expected in the first half of 2009. Another one or two retirements are likely. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 75, is thought to retire some time during the next four years.
Now, this would not fundamentally change the ideological makeup of the court as both Stevens and Ginsburg represent the more liberal side of the Supreme Court and they would be replaced by a Democratic President. What will be looked at more closely would be the diversity of the court. Currently, only one of nine justices is a woman and only one is African American.
With the prospect of a Ginsburg retirement at least one female nominee is a must, two seems quite likely. There's also much speculation about more racial diversity so that the female Hispanic and female African American candidates seem to have the best chances of getting nominated.
There are different lists out there, some longer, some shorter, and on at least two of them (here and here (pdf)) the name of Judge Johnnie B. Rawlinson appears. Judge Rawlinson, an African-American woman, sits on the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit since 2000 (nominated by President Clinton) and prior to that served as US District Judge for the District of Nevada. She was recommended for both posts by Sen. Reid and received universal praise upon her nomination for district judge in 1997. Prior to that she worked 18 years for the District Attorney's office in Las Vegas.
I'd say her chances are very good if Obama is looking at putting either a woman or an African American on the Supreme Court though I would guess that his first nominee will be Hispanic (the first one), most likely Judge Sonia Sotomayor.
You can read more on Judge Rawlinson here and here.
Starting today, President-elect Obama will also air video of his weekly radio address on YouTube. Just wonder how long it'll take until they refer to it as the weekly YouTube address. Anyway, here it is:
In response to the unfortunate success of Proposition 8 in California outlawing equal marriage rights, a group that formed on the internet last week has organized a day of nationwide protests. There are protests planned in 80 cities all across the United States. There are two protest scheduled for Las Vegas and Reno. Get the details here.
If you look at it logically, you'd think that the Lt. Governor would be interested in becoming Governor and the Congressman would love to move on up to the Senate.
Not so in Nevada. With the defeat of at least two possible opponents for Senator Harry Reid in last week's elections there are only two serious contenders left in the Republican party for the Senate and Governor.
Let's first take a look at the Senate race. It's quite clear that Republicans, both nationally and in Nevada, are itching for a fight and want a high profile win. What better way to do so than take out the Democratic Senate Majority Leader? Reid has been a target before (he very narrowly won reelection against John Ensign in 1998) and Republicans will try to oust him in 2010. Whoever will run against Reid (as long as that challenger is perceived as having a chance) he or she can count on a load of contributions from across the United States.
Now, there are two women who did Harry Reid a huge favor last week: Congresswoman-elect Dina Titus and State Senator-elect Shirley Breeden. They took out two of the most likely challengers: Rep. Jon Porter and State Sen. Joe Heck. Now, don't discount Heck entirely for future campaigns as he only lost narrowly in a Democratic wave, but he's unlikely to pose a threat to any sitting Democrat in 2010. A third, less likely, challenger (State Sen. Bob Beers) was taken out by State Senator-elect Allison Copening.
That leaves the badly beaten Republicans with only two credible options: Congressman Dean Heller, who managed to beat Jill Derby once again and with a bigger margin than in 2006 (despite Obama's overwhelming success in Northern Nevada), and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki.
As I noted above, one would expect the logical in terms of moving up to higher offices. But it has been no secret that Dean Heller is very much interested in running for Governor (he has been Secretary of State for 12 years prior to getting elected to Congress in 2006) and may simply use his current job as a springboard, much like Jim Gibbons did two years ago.
Consider all this when you read the following reported by the AP last night:
Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki said Thursday he's considering a run against U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., in 2010.
Krolicki said in an interview that he's discussing the prospect of challenging Reid with his family and will decide by early next year whether to try to unseat the veteran senator and political powerhouse.
"We're doing the due diligence we need to do," said Krolicki, adding that he's "absolutely taking this possibility seriously. This might be the moment. We're going to look at this really hard."
Republicans "got shellacked" nationally and in Nevada in the latest elections, Krolicki said, adding that the GOP rebuilding effort in this state must include an effort to get a first-rate slate of candidates for numerous offices that will be up for grabs.
"We need to rally around one candidate, whoever that is, for governor, for Senate, for congressional seats, for constitutional offices," he said. "It's going to take teamwork that we perhaps have not demonstrated for quite awhile, to turn this around."
There are two things in that quote by Krolicki that are quite notable: the need to rally around a single candidate for every office - "whoever that is." And, yes, that includes the Governor's office, currently occupied by Republican Jim Gibbons. As Gibbons is embroiled in one scandal after another and has done a very poor job of governing the state it is no wonder that he doesn't get a mention from his lieutenant. Everyone would be surprised if Gibbons doesn't get primaried in 2010 if his approval rating doesn't improve. If the Republicans get lucky they'll be able to convince him not to run again.
There are two natural candidates left to run for Governor: the Lt. Governor (Krolicki) and the man who has publically stated that he wants this job one day (Heller). This leads me to believe that Krolicki and Heller have entered into a Gentlemen's agreement with Krolicki challenging Harry Reid and Heller trying to succeed Gibbons.
Why do we hear from Krolicki first then? Well, he needs to raise a lot of money if he really wants a chance to beat Reid and needs to start doing so asap. Heller, on the other hand, can wait. Wait for Gibbons to recuse himself, see if Gibbons miraculously achieves a comeback (insert laugh here) and announce his attentions towards the end of 2009. If need be, he could stay on in the Congress for four more years, though there is the danger of his district becoming more Democratic after the 2010 census.
Krolicki's chances will depend heavily on any possible failures of the Democratic congress and the Obama administration. Republicans will try to pin any perceived failure to Harry Reid, as he is the sole Democratic leading figure they have a chance of beating in 2010.
But Krolicki comes with his own bagage. He was State Treasurer prior to becoming Lt. Governor and there seem to be several unresolved issues from his term in office. You can expect Reid to hang any budget shortfalls linked to Krolicki's term as Treasurer around his neck.
In any case, looks like we'll be following the Reid-Krolicki race for the next two years.
I cleaned up the layout a little now that the election is over. While some of the boxes are gone, the content is not. You will find all My Silver State interviews by clicking the link in the "about" box. Also, I added a couple of new blogs. My Silver State member unkempt jnani started a new blog called Third Eye on Reno, Coyote Angry is back and on the national blogs list I added Senate Guru. This is a great resource for anyone interested in all the US Senate races. Started during the 2008 cycle this will be a place to visit regularly in the coming two years as Harry Reid is up for reelection in 2010.
A week has passed now since I've been liveblogging the election results and I just wanted to take a look back at the good and bad results of this year's election:
The good:
- Barack Obama won Nevada! And with a huge and largely unexpected margin. Statewide Obama won 55.11% of the vote, McCain received 42.69%. That's a winning margin of more than 12 points. The statewide results are almost exactly the same as in Washoe County. The margin was even wider in Clark County where he beat McCain by almost 19 points. Surprisingly, Obama also won Carson City (by 203 votes) and outperformed John Kerry in all rural counties and thereby narrowing the winning margin of John McCain in the rurals.
- Say hello to Congresswoman Titus! Dina Titus won the 3rd CD by 18k votes (or 5 percentage points), though a lot of voters (almost 32k) went for third party candidates, probably because of the tone of the campaign. Dina Titus will be the first Democrat representing this district since it was created in 2002.
- With the beginning of the new session Steve Horsford will be the State Senate Majority Leader. Democrats won the majority in the Senate by winning both the 5th and 6th SD in Clark County. Allison Copening beat Bob Beers by 6 points in the 6th SD, hopefully putting an end to his career and Shirley Breeden narrowly beat Joe Heck. The new Senate will be comprised by 12 Democrats and 9 Republicans.
- Speaker Barbara Buckley achieved her goal of obtaining a 2/3 majority in the Assembly with a net gain of one seat. Marilyn Dondero Loop comfortably beat Donna Toussaint for the 5th AD seat held by Republican Valerie Weber, and while Jon Ozark beat incumbent Bob Beers in the Republican primary in the 21st AD, he lost in a close race to Democrat Ellen Spiegel. Of the endangered incumbents David Bobzien won by a huge margin against RGJ endorsed John Gwaltney in AD-24, David's success is most likely a combination of his superb work in the Assembly and Gwaltney's sickening smear campaign. In AD-40 incumbent Democrat Bonnie Parnell once again won a very close race, this time beating former Sec. of State Cheryl Lau.
- Democrats won all seats on the Clark County Commission. Two of the seven seats were previosly held by Republicans. Running for one of the seats was Republican Assemblywoman Valerie Weber who not only lost this race but also cost her party a seat in the Assembly.
The bad:
- Jill Derby's loss in the 2nd CD. While a win for Dina Titus was always more likely than one for Derby the end result is still very disappointing. She not only received fewer votes than Barack Obama in every single county, her support was especially weak in Washoe County. Derby came so close in 2006 because she won Washoe county by almost 4 points. Instead of increasing her margin in Washoe this time (with the math and the registration advantage on her side), she actually lost it by 1 point to Dean Heller. Considering that Obama won Washoe by 12 points this is really astounding. Obama received 20k more votes than Derby, clearly she didn't connect with these 20,000 voters and one wonders what the Derby campaign did wrong that they didn't at least get half of these voters.
- With early voting results coming in several of the Assembly races did look pretty good but slipped away the more vote totals came in from election day itself. Democrats lost the seat held by RoseMary Womack. Republican Melissa Woodbury won this one by three points. Democratic candidates came close in AD 2 and 4, though the biggest disappointment was AD-13 where Democrat Andrew Martin lost a close race to Republican incumbent Chad Christensen.
- Unfortunately, Deborah Schumacher lost the race for the Supreme Court against Republican Kris Pickering who didn't care much about the nonpartisan status of the Supreme Court and spoke at a Sarah Palin event in Carson City during the campaign. The numbers in Clark County (won by Pickering) and Washoe County (won by Schumacher) cancelled each other out and all rural counties voted for Pickering. While the margin separating the two was less than 15k more than 10 times that number voted for "none of the above"...
